NBA Conference Finals: Bets for Celtics vs. Pacers and Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

NBA Finals Pick

It takes something special and unusual to win a title without an MVP. Here is a reminder of the teams to do it since 1980:

• 2019 Raptors: Elite defensively with multiple elite defensive players, had size, and Kawhi Leonard finished as Finals MVP. Went 58-24 during the regular season.
• 2004 Pistons: Elite defensively with multiple elite defensive players, had size and Chauncey Billups finished as Finals MVP. Went 54-28 during the regular season.
• 1989, 1990 Pistons: Elite defensively with multiple elite defensive players and Joe Dumars and Isiah Thomas finished as Finals MVPs. Went 63-19 and 59-23 during the regular season.
• 1981 Celtics: Top five in offense and defense and Cedric Maxell was Finals MVP. Went 62-20 during the regular season. Larry Bird was second in MVP voting.

There is also one other team whose former MVP was pretty clearly past his prime when it won the title:

• 2014 Spurs: Tim Duncan was 37. The Spurs were elite offensively in the playoffs and good defensively during the regular season. Kawhi Leonard was Finals MVP. Danny Green, Leonard and Duncan were still elite defensively. Went 62-20 during the regular season.

Each one of those teams won 54+ games, was at least the 2-seed in their conference, and most were driven by a really elite defense and multiple elite defensive players.

Of the teams remaining, really only Boston or Minnesota looks anything like these teams. Boston is driven especially by its great offense, while Minnesota had the best defense by a wide margin during the regular season and just shut down the defending champs.

If Minnesota makes the finals, I think it is going to cause a lot of problems for Boston (or Indiana). They just have too many great defenders, and the Celtics' best offensive players might not be able to create really great opportunities. To me, the Wolves remind me of the 2019 Raptors and the 2004 Pistons — just really incredible defensive teams that sometimes had an ugly offense, but were able to get enough.

The Timberwolves are my championship pick at the moment, and Anthony Edwards would be the surefire MVP in my mind. I'm betting .5u on Edwards to be Finals MVP at +325 on ESPN BET (would bet down to +275).

Celtics vs. Pacers

Game 1: Tuesday, May 21, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Celtics -1100 | Pacers +700 (FanDuel)

The Pacers out-hustled the NBA's premier hustle team in the Knicks. Watching Game 7 it felt like the Pacers couldn't miss, and that was true; they finished shooting 80% from midrange for the game, an absurd number. Ultimately, the Knicks were felled by injuries, but the Pacers' offense is legitimate.

Indiana's defense was not good in that series, and in games against Boston this season, that was also true. To win games in this series, the Pacers are going to have to outscore the Celtics and hope the Celtics' offense gets stagnant. When the Pacers have faced real movement, they are slow on rotations and have really struggled. Tyrese Haliburton will be key here: If he is not aggressive, Indiana stands no chance. The more Haliburton has the ball in his hands, and the more he shoots, the more prolific the Pacers offense can be.

For the Celtics, the defense is key, and if I were a Celtics fan, I'd be a little worried. Without Kristaps Porziņģis this season, they allowed teams to shoot 74% at the rim or better in 13-of-31 games and 3-of-5 in the playoffs. The Pacers attack the rim relentlessly and use that to create openings, and if they are able to score there, it'll be a nightmare. Like the Knicks series, this will have feedback loops: When the Pacers are going fast and on the fastbreak, they will score better and their defense will look better on the other end being set. Porziņģis coming back will be key, and him looking healthy will matter. Boston has allowed opponents in transition the least amount of any playoff team, and if the Celtics are able to do that here, they would handle this series much easier.

It's hard to take anything out of the first two rounds for the Celtics. They played few close games, but the teams they played were hurt and not playing well. I'm not sure how tested they are, or even prepared for the playoffs. They could come out firing on all cylinders or struggling in new ways.

I think the Pacers steal at least two games in this series, especially without Porziņģis in the first two games. I always bet against the Celtics on the spread, and this is no exception. I expect the Pacers to head back to Indiana tied 1-1, and then squeak out one of the next two at home. I'm betting .5u on Pacers +2.5 in the series at +130 on ESPN BET, DraftKings or Fanatics.

Player Props

Tyrese Haliburton to lead the series in 3s (+110), FanDuel, .5u: Haliburton is averaging 3.5 3s per game in the playoffs. The Celtics are allowing players to pull up off the dribble for 3s, and Haliburton is one of the best at that. In Round 2, Donovan Mitchell averaged 5.3 3s on 10 attempts per game. In Round 1, Tyler Herro averaged three 3s on 8.6 attempts per game. Haliburton is lights out and will be bombing away as he finally looks healthy.

Pascal Siakam to lead the series in points per game (+1500), DraftKings/Fanatics, .2u (would bet down to +1200): Evan Mobley averaged 5.7 more PPG against the Celtics than he did during the regular season and Bam Adebayo averaged 3.3 more. Boston has struggled some with flexible offensive big men, and Siakam is a better scorer than Mobley and Adebayo — and he also found his stroke later in the series against the Knicks. But this is as much about fading Jayson Tatum, who hasn't been scoring particularly well this playoffs or looking particularly aggressive. He averaged 26.8 PPG in Round 2 after only averaging 21.5 in Round 1. If the number is between those two, I think he could easily be passed by Jaylen Brown, Siakam, Haliburton or even Derrick White. Siakam is the best bet for me, and I think he may have a huge series.

Jayson Tatum to have 5+ assists in every game (+460), FanDuel, .35u: If I'm wrong about the length of this series, this is one of the primary ways. Indiana's defense is bad and there will be plenty of playmaking opportunities for Tatum, who just did this against Cleveland and has 5+ assists in 8-of-10 games these playoffs. At that 80% rate, this would be plus EV even if the series went seven games. This is also available on ESPN BET at +420, but I would not bet below +400.

Jayson Tatum to have 25+ points in every game (+350), ESPN BET, .25u: This is +130 on FanDuel. Tatum has 30+ in his last seven games versus the Pacers. I'm not sure he is at his peak performance right now, but these odds are just way too long here. Based on current odds available, fair odds should be around +141. I doubt it's that good, but this is a must bet here. I'd bet this down to +250.

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks

Game 1: Wednesday, May 22, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Timberwolves -168 | Mavericks +142 (FanDuel)

This series is one of the toughest to read, because both of these teams' success to this point defies their regular season record. Dallas' defense has been elite in the postseason after not being as strong during the regular season. Minnesota's offense has also looked way better than it did during the regular season, and Edwards especially has been a force more than he was during the year.

I don't see an edge on the spread or series prices at this moment and don't want to bet money on things I don't feel great about, so I'm passing on that here.

Player props:

Anthony Edwards most points (+130), .5u, DraftKings/Fanatics: Luka did not have huge scoring games last series, and Edwards seemed like he could get 40 nightly. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are elite defenders, and they consistently had no answer for Edwards. Dallas's individual perimeter defenders aren't as good, and Edwards should be able to get his shot. This is a two man race, and I think Edwards should be favored here.

Luka Doncic to score 20+ in each game of the series (-150), .7u: Doncic scored 20+ in 65-of-70 regular season games. He is -1800 to score 20+ in Game 1. He has not had a great playoffs and scored under this number twice, but these are just great odds. I have fair odds at -190 and would bet this down to -160.

Karl-Anthony Towns to hit 4+ 3s in any game this series (-110), 1.2u: Towns has done this in both series so far. Dallas is going to let him shoot 3s, as they let the Thunder role players bomb away in the last one, especially Chet Holmgren. Towns has a 20% chance to go over this line in any game this series, which makes this fair at -130 based on the odds, and I'd cap it at an even higher chance. I'd bet this down to -130.